I will try to present my case on why the Canucks will prevail in Game 6 by presenting three fallacies in the minds of Blackhawks fans and refuting them through some statistics that I googled and came up with myself using my extensive statistics background from my years at UBC. I know, very scientific.
Fallacy #1: Ad Hominem
“An Ad Hominem is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument. “
Example of Ad Hominem:
Canucks fan: “I believe the Canucks will win game 6.”
Blackhawks fan: “Of course you would say that, you’re a Canucks fan.”
Canucks fan: “What about the arguments I gave to support my position?”
Blackhawks fan: “Those don’t count. Like I said, you’re a Canucks fan, so you have to say that Canucks will win. Further, your irrational behaviour leads you to say ridiculous things.”
Fallacy #2: The Straw Man
“The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position.”
Example of Straw Man:
Canucks fan: "I believe the Canucks will win game 6."
Blackhawks fan: "Why do you think that?"
Canucks fan: "Because the statistics show that these teams are much closer to each other than some may think."
Blackhawks fan: "If your statistics are so good, then why aren’t the Canucks up three games to two instead?"
Fallacy #3: False Dilemma
“A False Dilemma is a fallacy in which a person uses the following pattern of ‘reasoning’:
Either claim X is true or claim Y is true (when X and Y could both be false).
Claim Y is false.
Therefore claim X is true.”
Example of False Dilemma:
The Canucks win at home or lose at home.
The Canucks did not win at home last time.
Therefore, the Canucks will lose at home this time.
Here comes the crazy statistical analysis to refute the above fallacies:
The beatings that the Canucks endured in Game 3 and 4 were so horrific that it easily washed away two and a half great results for the Canucks on the road. People forget that the Canucks were up by 2 in the first period of game 2 and could have been up by a couple more. Game 3 was all Canucks for the 1st period. The dominance of the Blackhawks has been grossly overstated.
These two teams are closer than one may think. The most dominant difference and truly the reason why the Blackhawks own a 3-2 game differential is the penalty kill. When you add this series plus the LA series, the Canucks are at a lowly 67.3% How bad is that? To put it into perspective if the Canucks were whistled for 6 penalties in a game, opponents could look forward to scoring at least 2 goals a game. It is imperative that the Canucks keep the number of penalties to about four in game 6 to have a chance to win with what has been a strong team showing during 5-on-5 hockey. The Canucks have scored 28 goals 5-on-5 to the Blackhawks 19. Delving further into the Canucks penalty kill, it is surprising that the Canucks are even hanging around in these playoffs. Vancouver has allowed 15 pp goals the entire postseason to Chicago’s 5 pp goals. Add in two shorthanded goals for the Hawks and one can start seeing the huge advantage for the Blackhawks' special teams unit. Vancouver’s team plus/minus, which is not affected by power play goals, stands at +12 to Chicago’s -2, again showing how good Vancouver is when they can stay out of the box. The adage of staying out of the box has never been so true for a team like the Canucks. The Canucks also will benefit greatly with scoring the first goal as the Hawks have shown to be real frontrunners these playoffs with a 5-1 record when scoring first.
Conclusion:
A Canucks victory is certain if they can stay out of the box (maximum 4 penalties) AND score first.
Finally looking at both team’s stats over 11 games, try to distinguish which team is who:
3.82 G/G 3.18
3.27 GA/G 2.91
22.9 PP% 22.4
29.8 S/G 31.8
30.5 SA/G 27.9
55.0 FO% 49.3
The first column of stats is none other than your Vancouver Canucks. Despite two big blowouts at home, the total goals scored for this series is 18-17 in favour of the Blackhawks. The Canucks have scored 42 total goals to the Hawks 35, while defensively the Canucks have let in 36 goals to the Hawks. This series statistics show thee two teams to be quite similar which means it won’t be that easy for the Blackhawks to finish off the Canucks. The Canucks higher goals against is offset by their higher goals scored. Again, the only big advantage lies in the poor penalty killing of the Canucks. The Canucks have actually started to dominate in the face off circle versus the Hawks and this continuing trend may play a crucial part in game 6 as seen by the goals scored in game 5. Henrik Sedin won an offensive draw that lead directly to Christian Erhoff's goal, Ryan Johnson won a defensive faceoff that indirectly lead to Kevin Bieksa's first goal, and Henrik Sedin won an offensive faceoff that directly lead to Bieksa's second PP goal. Henrik Sedin (12/19) ate David Bolland (2/13) alive while Ryan Johnson went 8/9. Only Jonathan Toews had a decent night in the faceoff circle going 11/19. Game 4, the Canucks had a huge faceoff advantage as well. Continued winning of the faceoffs just may be the difference the Canucks need for a game 6 victory.
Conclusion:
We will see the Canucks @ the United Center for game 7 Thursday night. Kane and the boys shouldn’t have had packed prematurely for San Jose.
